Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua already have a lot of problems
Politicians and military experts continue to comment on the possible deployment of Russia's military infrastructure in Latin America. Russian Ambassador to Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador Alexander Khokholikov said that Russia's military presence in Nicaragua allows the law of this country. But Washington has already said that the US will take action if Russia considers a military presence in the Western Hemisphere. Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov did not rule out, but did not confirm, the possibility of deploying Russian troops in Cuba and Venezuela.
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Some military experts believe that Russia, in response to NATO's eastward expansion, could send military instructors to Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, deploy intelligence centers or even a naval base there. How realistic are these plans in the current environment? This question was asked by MK to a well-known political scientist, a specialist in Latin America, Oleg Yasinsky.
– I think that, despite all the fairness of Russia's demands on NATO and the US, these plans are not very realistic. This is more of an emotional reaction than a project based on the realities of Latin America. For example, Cuba is now going through a very difficult period in its history. Assistance from Russia is minimal, China is guided by purely pragmatic considerations in relation to it. Cuba is now very hopeful that there will be some kind of easing of US sanctions that Biden promised before the elections. I do not think that the current Cuban leadership will go to further complicate relations with the United States in order to geopolitically support Russia, relations with which are neither ideologically nor politically a priority for Cuba. Some level of military cooperation remains, but how much should this level be in order to be comparable to the deployment of American weapons near Russian borders? An equivalent threat to the United States would be the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in one of the Latin American countries. But that seems completely impossible to me.
– There is a very strong pro-American opposition, which is financed from the USA. The situation is very fragile. There is relative civil peace in the country. The deployment of Russian weapons or troops would lead to huge internal problems, which the government does not want there. In addition, according to the country's constitution, foreign military bases cannot be located there.
– There is a big internal political crisis in Nicaragua. The country is economically more focused on China. The government of Daniel Ortega is quite unpopular, there is a serious internal conflict. Playing with Russia for Nicaragua is fraught with a very strong complication of the internal situation. As for some instructors, observation bases, this is quite possible. But I don't think it's a serious threat to the US. At the same time, this is like a red rag to the bull, which would cause serious tension in the region, which these governments do not want at all.
– This is not excluded, but in any case it is a serious argument for the right opposition. I don't know how beneficial this is now for the Nicaraguan government. It seems to me that they will think three times before deciding on this. Before, when there was a socialist camp, the USSR, solidarity, disinterested support of our own people would have looked logical. During the Caribbean crisis, Cuba was ready to sacrifice itself because there was a very strong ideological motivation. Dislike for the US today is not enough to take such risks.
– I would like to hear a response from the government of Cuba. It would be right to know the opinion of those countries where all this is planned. But so far I haven't heard anything. Moreover, Cuba will not agree to this if it hopes for an easing of US sanctions. The situation there is really very difficult. In recent years, Cuba has lived off tourism and oil supplied by Venezuela. Now there is less oil due to the crisis in Venezuela and the tightening of the naval blockade of Cuba. The pandemic has hit tourism. It is unlikely that the Cuban government will want to further complicate the situation by worsening relations with the United States. Moreover, not for the sake of an ideological ally, but for the sake of capitalist Russia.