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The West's concern about Russia's “imminent invasion” of Ukraine is misplaced. It is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of Moscow's mindset, priorities, and modus operandi.
Dmitry Simes, publisher and CEO of the American National Interest magazine, came to this conclusion after talking to representatives of the Russian political elite. The interlocutors assured him that there were no aggressive plans of the Kremlin towards Ukraine.
Simes also noted that the history of the use of force by Russian President Vladimir Putin shows that he does not initiate it himself, but always responds to any violent actions of the country's opponents .
“I have not heard a single mention of the possibility of a major Russian invasion, simply because Moscow's demands for NATO not to expand and strengthen the alliance in Eastern Europe have not been met. In Moscow, all interlocutors deny such a possibility” , — stressed Simes.
However, he is confident that in the event of an attack, Russia will not hesitate to respond decisively to the aggressor. When asked by Simes what it would be, his sources recalled the Georgian attack on Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia in 2008. Russia responded in full, stopping the invasion only on the outskirts of Tbilisi.
Recently, the Kremlin has been repeating that it is not going to “invade” Ukraine. The US and NATO claim that the preparations for the attack have already been completed. The United States military believes that in the event of a direct confrontation, Kiev will be captured in 72 hours.